The Closing Print live trading and financial blog during market hours.

Tuesday played out as we thought it might, after SPY retested the lost 50ma on Monday.

We felt the index would retest, we just didn’t think it would happen immediately after Friday’s Marubozu candlestick. 

If you haven’t visited David Larew’s page on Stockcharts, do yourself a favor and look at how he uses PSAR, which he calls “SARS”. Three peaks and a domed house is my favorite, which harkens back to George Lindsay’s book, 1971 in Encyclopedia of Stock Market Techniques.

We now count the days for resolution to the downside or a bounce from the ascending trend line back above the moving averages. Yields hold the key. If the 2/5/10 year yields continue higher this week, SPY will likely move below said trend line. We’ve also started analyzing the possibility this new trend may move below support levels, perhaps beyond 208.62 (-5%) possibly heading back to Brexit lows, 198.63.


The 75 stocks institutions typically have in their core portfolios are represented in XII, the ARCA Institutional Index. We could be tracing out the head, having already completed a left shoulder in May and June. Note the 200ma below.


Breadth is second only to trend in importance. We note most measures are deteriorating. NYHL is close to crossing the zero line. If 52 week highs continue to diminish, this histogram will cross. We will reassess when that happens, though we do note t he moving average is heading lower again.


NYMO closed at (-61.34). It is possible for much lower readings to occur before we near an inflection point. The summation index (NYSI) in the lower panel suggests we could see more downside as breadth wanes.


Yields are off 1% at the present time, so it is no surprise futures are positive.

Happy Trading – CV