Futures were near +8.00 handles when I started writing this post. Typically we fade at the opening bell whenever futures are net long on the Globex session. Thats how we will start the Tuesday session preceding this weeks highly anticipated FED meeting. Most everyone predicts no hike in September.
Crude oil is under pressure this morning, which will likely have an impact on the equity markets. The dollar is higher (+0.08) after a lack luster session on Monday (-0.33 avg). We’re looking for the dollar to extend its move on Friday.
The New York Stock Exchange Composite (NYA) is trading below it’s 20 and 50 period moving average. The rule is, when price is above the 9 and 20ema we are bullish. And, if price is below we are bearish. Note the trend line, whether you take the closes as we do (darker line) or the wicks as some others do, they both have failed. Price is below the moving averages on an index that forecasts “market participation” to a greater degree that the S&P500. Food for thought.
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) presents the same condition. Until prices get back above the 9 and 20ema we assume caution or a neutral stance.
The NASDAQ 100 is consolidating along a multiple top, having tried and fail to break above these all time highs overhead. A break above this level would change our thinking. That said, note the reverse Kirby below 4830.00. Additionally, stochastic and RSI are at a precarious juncture. Today and tomorrow should help with directional planning.
Long-term retirement assets are flat at the present time. Until we see a definite trend with multiple bullish/bearish catalysts we see no reason to expose ourselves to additional risk.
Stocks on the watchlist failed to break out yesterday, with few exceptions. We will be watching that again today for any similarities.
Have a great day and……….
Happy trading, Vinny