It has been a busy weekend, having made another trip back to New Jersey to retrieve our remaining belongings. The wife and I are exhausted, after 10 hours on the road back to Jersey and 10 hours back in the same weekend. Please bear with me as this post will replace the weekend video for the week. The format is the same.
My apologies for those of you who like the video and dislike reading. Insert a bit of sarcasm on my part.
We start every week with a review of the previous week, so here is a screencap of the important points to focus on this week.
The Opening Monologue
Everyone knows the US market indices were under selling pressure last week. Japan and the United Kingdom faired best. That said, the most important data to note is at the bottom, as there were (2) bullish, (14) neutral, and (4) bearish indicators to end the week.
Proceed with caution.
Indices were weak as they printed bases. We will wait until institutions are ready to start buying again. If they do SPX/SPY absolute gamma resistance exists at 3500/350 respectively. Support is the put wall at 3200/320.
Monthly OPEX – Expected moves for the week.
SPY is printing a base. We will wait patiently for institutions to show us which direction they plan to take the markets. SPY expected move for the week is (+/- 10.28) into September OPEX.
That gives us a 100 point range with futures presently (+24 points) in the Globex session tonight.
QQQ Expected move for the week (+/- 10.98)
IWM Expected move for the week (+/- 5.57)
Bonds / Yields
Caution is warranted as bonds are flat. Yields pulled in to close the week. Despite the lack of momentum in treasuries, high yield and junk bonds show a lack of concern at the moment. Both are bullish and printing a base just under 52-week highs. The bond stock ratio is bearish to neutral.
Currencies
The British pound weakened versus the US dollar last week, benefitting the FTSE in the process. The dollar is basing, forming a rounding bottom, with RSI pointing to a potential bullish follow through.
Commodities
Gold is flat for the past few weeks. Crude is weak. Copper suggests strength in construction-related stocks. Look for builders and home improvement to remain bullish.
Sectors
Watch for strength in materials (XLB), financials (XLF), industrials (XLI), and transportation stocks (IYT), as the XLY/XLP ration remains bullish.
Stocks on the watchlist: IBD and DOW Industrials
| ADBE | AMD | ALAM | BABA | BIG | DHI | DG | DOYU | IR | LOW | NVDA | PANW | PKI | THO |
| AAPL | CAT | DD | HD | KO | MMM | MRK | NKE | VZ |
The bottom line? I’m personally waiting for the indices to form a base. We have support at 3200 and resistance at 3500. OPEX is this week.
Check my youtube channel in the morning before the opening bell for the live link to the broadcast.
https://www.youtube.com/user/CousinVinnyDayTrade
Thanks again for your patience as we transition to our new offices in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and consider joining us in the trading room for our Youtube LIVE broadcast during market hours. Watch, listen, and trade from 9:20 AM to 4:15 PM Monday through Friday.
Happy Trading,
Vinny
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