Stocks and Indices Are Higher This Morning
The question we frequently hear and see from novice traders is popping up again, “what do you think the markets will do now” or some variation thereof, with regard to stocks.
We have to remind ourselves our opinions matter little. Getting stressed out about the stock market from day to day is an emotional rollercoaster. Since institutions control the ebb and flow, we have to pay attention to what the data is saying. Currently, we are seeing extremes that should reverse.
While we cannot rule out further weakness, some relief in the “noise” filtered into the markets on Sunday.
“The Wall Street Journal reported late on Sunday that Beijing and Washington had started quiet negotiations to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets, after President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on Chinese imports last week.” – Reuters
With China-US news and oversold conditions, futures are gapping higher. It’s in China’s best interest to help resolve the trade situation. A little optimism would go a long way.
SPY is responding in kind, so what happens after the opening bell is tantamount in our minds.
Traders and investors are left guessing what institutions will do next. Generally speaking, nothing has changed. Sales and earnings are good. Forward guidance is upbeat and the global macro looks more bullish than bearish.
What will institutions do with stocks?
This is the question on everyone’s mind this morning. Last week we saw strength in gold, crude, and energy stocks. The Yen continued its bullish trend. And, the dollar was lower.
A dose of caution is warranted. Many of the stocks in the watchlist are exhibiting relative strength while the indices moved lower that week.
We would wait for the opening range and perhaps a bit beyond before initiating any new positions. My focus will be on institutions, any change in character in “hedging” and which stocks are most active today.
With regard to institutions, we need to see conviction by way of “blocks” traded in earnest after the opening bell.
There is no hurry.
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