It appears that SPY and the S&P500 are forming a base. The anticipation this week was, “let the markets set up before adding risk.” In other words, we want to be patient. We want to see and confirm that institutions are defending this level.
In the weekend video week discussed the quick drop Thursday and Friday, and that any risk we take on would be confirmed by 5 to 7 days of basing above the gamma put wall. That level is still 320/3200.
Note stochastic is oversold. A turn today with futures (+30) could set up a trigger for a move back to the top of the base 342/345.
Options traders this week have few puts positioned between Thursdays low and 330/3300. That said if SPY/SPX break under 330.3300 some larger put positions start to pick up gamma. That will expand volatility.
| MARKET OUTLOOK: |
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| September OPEX resistance = 350/3500. Put wall 320/3200 on a break of the Vol Trigger. |