The 3000 OI level remains a pivotal strike, aligning with 200d support for SPY, S&P500 Index, and Futures. All three have bounced off this support zone. Futures are (+48 points) this morning, while SPY is trading (+5.25) points above the 200d.
Forecasting a turning point for markets now gets a bit tricky as we are under the ZeroGamma/Vol Trigger levels. This infers thats puts are in control of the market, as implied volatility levels (VIX) becomes the key for signs of a turn.
SPY 60 Minute
We were focused on the May 13 reversal and oversold conditions during the LIVE session Thursday. We pointed to the last time RSI sold off at this magnitude, with the pendulum set to reverse. An eighteen-day bullish surge followed. While not a guarantee, this condition is more bullish than bearish going into the Opening Bell this morning.
S&P500 Futures and SPY held the 200d for now, while VIX remains the key to any bullish follow through. RSI daily is perched atop the 50 level.
Stay open-minded. Just because SPY and S&P500 bounced at the 200d, there is still a risk of rejection. One reminded is the late February bounce that failed.
In early trading, most of our open positions are bouncing back above VWAP levels established in Thursday’s session.
We do have a position in SPXU; we will hold on to our hedges for now, just in case the markets are rejected at a short-term Fibonacci level. Watch 23.6 and 38.2% from the Tuesday highs down to a pivot low mark at the 200d.
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