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Equity Markets Enter Seasonally Strong Period
While it is never pleasant to see red in the morning, a little context always helps gain some perspective. As the equity markets enter the seasonally strong months of the year, a small pullback of 3% – 5% seems both plausible and a bit overdone. If sales and earnings were dismal, we would be more concerned.
SPY – Seasonally Strong Start
The S&P500 SPDR ETF started the year with 4 consecutive weekly gains. Targets and support areas are shown on the weekly chart of SPY. Maximum drawdown anticipated would generate (-7.00%). For that to happen, a major disruption in profit projections and expectations would be all over the news. We anticipate SPY will pullback into the zone between these two areas of support.
JUNK Bonds (JNK)
Junk bonds are a good barometer of investor’s risk appetite. This asset group tends to lead the equity markets, with added emphasis on downward moves. Targets and support areas are shown in the weekly chart, When JNK starts to show weakness we can assume equities will follow.
In March 2017, Junk Bonds led the markets lower. The resulting move culminated in a (-3.20%) drawdown, the maximum for the year. Sales and earnings were good for most companies in 2017.
Sales and Earnings Beat Expectations
In 2017 most companies were rewarded after reporting an increase in earnings and sales. This year investors are selling the news, marking a noticeable change. If companies were reporting dismal results we would have a more bearish view of the current environment. Also, consider the global economic expansion. A noticeable change in market sentiment, would be a reason to be more concerned. Tax reform and repatriation add to the equity market safety net.
Big banks and regionals led into the closing bell on Thursday. We are anticipating strength will persist.
Bottom line: Until we see a noticeable change, we are longer-term bullish.
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