RECENT BLOG POSTS
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John Murphy at Stockcharts mentioned the $NYA200R (NYSE Composite stocks trading above their 200 day moving average) relative to the S&P500 weekly chart. I decided to do the same with the SPXA200R relative to the S&P500. Read more......
Zooming out to a monthly view of the S&P500, the SPY in this case, we need to point out the overbought nature of RSI. The last cyclical bull peak in 2007 became overbought and pulled back at this level. We are currently in month 59 of the current cyclical bull market off the 2009 low, a 178% gain, from 666 to 1850. (rounded). Despite the 20% correction in 2011, the market ran higher. Read more...
The Bond markets appear to have turned the corner over the past several weeks, with TLT and IEF (7/10/20 year durations) in new uptrends, breaking the previous eight (8) month downtrend.
At $37 trillion, the US Bond market is about 2.6x the size of the $14 tril US Stock Market.
 This includes all bonds - asset-backed, mortgages, government debt, everything. Corporate debt is only $8 tril of this. So for corporations the stock market is potentially a more significant source of capital.
 The Wilshire 5000 Index is a good proxy for the overall US stock market. Wilshire pegs it at about $14 trillion total cap.
So what Vinny?
Well, I am watching the carry trade for clues. DBV is a good measure....
UPDATE: The President's SOTU Speech lacked substance and only added fuel that he would act like a dictator rather than an elected official with enumerated powers. The market is down in response.
Thoughts on the current 58 month secular bull market. Seasonality this week is bullish since 1950.
Big Cap 75 - $XII ARCA Institutional Index near 50% retrace and lower trend line of ascending pattern 2013,
Financials - Watch List - C BAC ETFC LM MET MS WFC FITB
Christmas Rally Mode - Lots of good setups covered in this weeks video for you degenerates who need to trade over the holidays.
Lots of setups in XLF, XLV and XHB.
Looking for consolidation here as the SPX and COMPQ test this rising wedge. If we break it could be short and sweet, perhaps to the previous pivot high last week of October and first two weeks of November. After an eleven day sideways range we broke out to new highs the week of November 11th.
Watching Healthcare and Homebuilders. $XOM looking good as well.
Statistically speaking we are headed into what would be seven weeks higher on the SP500, if it were to occur. A pullback on the SPX weekly most often follows six weeks higher without a rest. Can the index move higher? The SP500 can certainly, though I anticipate a move lower. I said that last week too…..
The Top Twenty Five Movers and Shakers which traders have focused there attention on during 2013. I like AMBA, for its push higher, BLOX, IGTE, NFLX for their recent pullbacks to moving averages and BITA, SFUN and VIPS which are setting up nice bull flags on their daily charts.
GEOS, EEFT, EDU, LOPE, SKX, KKD, BLMN, RH, WBMD.
In addition, all nine SPDR sectors look bullish, with MACD crossovers late in the week with the exception of XLU. Look to those sector components for trade setups going into the week if the SP500 continues higher. If TNX bounces and moves higher XLF could follow suit as banks benefit from the yield curve turning higher. Builders and REITs on the other hand could get hit.
Also do yourself a favor and read Ukarlewitz Blog as he always has insightful commentary on the markets. In particular, UK's points on milestone round number points 1400, 1500, 1600, 1700 and looming above 1800 on SP500 bears repeating.
As always, Happy Trading - CV
Interest sensitive stocks saw weakness on Friday. Commodities, builders, REITS and utilities moved lower.
Stocks in sectors that benefited; banks, industrial, material and technology saw strength. This video covers what to expect in the coming week.
Have you ever noticed bad news (indices) always seems to occur when least expected?
Most news is viewed as noise, so we filter it out as traders.
We haven’t had any bad news since the government shutdown; even that news was muted considering all of the MBS buying and selling by the FED. The market continues to head higher. Lately, the rhetoric over Iran is reaching a point that even I stopped to listen to this weekend. Kerry, Hagen, Israel and even Iran is getting on the band wagon.
So what Vinny, it’s just political rhetoric and saber rattling. Maybe so, but the timing, along with the underlining action is what I am focused on. Five of the nine SPDR sector ETFs are showing divergence between price and accumulated volume. The XLY, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLU charts are showing divergence between price and accumulated (up volume) volume.